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Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 30 minutesLiquidity: $49.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $69.9KEvent: Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Austin FC - More Markets
36.0¢
Deportivo Toluca FC
64.0¢
Austin FC
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection24Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets17Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:27 trades$30.8K trackedsource coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 38 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Deportivo Toluca FC · $1.2K net·2 wallets·$4.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAustin FC$9.4K@ 70¢·Elenes

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Austin FC pressure: $7.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.5K
6h
−$22.3K
tracked
$30.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Deportivo Toluca FC · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 38 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Austin FC or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.leaguescup.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Deportivo Toluca FC" if Deportivo Toluca FC win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Austin FC".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Leagues Cup game, scheduled for August 26 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Deportivo Toluca FC" if Deportivo Toluca FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Austin FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on leaguescup.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Austin FC@ 65.0¢36m ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Deportivo Toluca FC; negative values favor Austin FC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAustin FC · $7.5K
6hAustin FC · $22.3K
24hAustin FC · $22.3K

Deportivo Toluca FC price VWAP

Volume-weighted Deportivo Toluca FC price. Austin FC fills are converted to the complementary Deportivo Toluca FC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.0¢
VWAP 24h32.3¢▲ above by 3.7pp
VWAP 7d32.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Deportivo Toluca FC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$10.5K
30¢
$14.6K
25¢
$5.7K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ElenesAustin FC$16.1K
BUY VWAP 69.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.