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Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5

● quote 92 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $233.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $72.5KEvent: Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
40.5¢
YES
59.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection34Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 91%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$53.3K trackedsource coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 97 min agoofficial metadata 92 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$4.5K·2 wallets·$7.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder (NO)$8.3K@ 59¢·0x6f3e…bcf8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$15.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.7K
6h
−$30.8K
tracked
$53.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$4.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 91% · priority 63

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 92 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 97 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 92 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 20:07 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels, scheduled for August 16 at 4:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels combine to score 10 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 10, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $47.4K gross
0x746e…68ca2 linked markets · $2.7K gross
0x56cc…d5892 linked markets · $23 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$15.7K
6h−$30.8K
24h−$29.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h41.9¢▼ below by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d41.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$30.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5268…135dUnder$13.9K
BUY VWAP 58.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.