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Roehampton: Elmer Moeller vs Ivan Ivanov

● quote 131 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $180.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $71.8KEvent: Roehampton: Elmer Moeller vs Ivan Ivanov
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection25Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$52.8K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 74%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 164 min agoofficial metadata 122 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElmer Moeller (YES)$15.4K@ 100¢·0x9909…311c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$13.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$13.1K
6h
+$45.9K
tracked
$52.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 131 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 164 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 122 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elmer Moeller and Ivan Ivanov in the Roehampton, originally scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Ivan Ivanov. This market will resolve to 'Ivan Ivanov' if Ivan Ivanov advances against Elmer Moeller. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$13.1K
6h+$45.9K
24h+$45.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h92.7¢▲ above by 7.2pp
VWAP 7d92.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$36.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$8.3K
75¢
$6.7K
70¢
$1.2K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYElmer Moeller (YES)$15.4K@ 99.9¢0x9909…311c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller (YES)$14.6K@ 97.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x9909…311cElmer Moeller$15.4K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
hd777Elmer Moeller$14.6K
BUY VWAP 97.0¢·1 fill
swy01Elmer Moeller$12.4K
BUY VWAP 80.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.