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Sion: Alex Marti Pujolras vs Maximilian Neuchrist

● quote 105 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $165.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $116.1KEvent: Sion: Alex Marti Pujolras vs Maximilian Neuchrist
99.9¢
YES
3.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$49.2K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 134 min agoofficial metadata 96 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlex Marti Pujolras (YES)$12.9K@ 63¢·0x1d60…453d

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.9K
6h
+$17.9K
tracked
$49.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$3.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 105 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 134 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 96 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 09:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Marti Pujolras and Maximilian Neuchrist in the Sion, Switzerland, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 5:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Marti Pujolras' if Alex Marti Pujolras advances against Maximilian Neuchrist. This market will resolve to 'Maximilian Neuchrist' if Maximilian Neuchrist advances against Alex Marti Pujolras. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Marti Pujolras@ 88.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -60.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $74 → $76 · 37s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.9K
6h+$17.9K
24h+$17.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h81.1¢▲ above by 18.8pp
VWAP 7d81.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$29.3K
90¢
$84
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.0K
60¢
$16.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$98
40¢
$34
35¢
$2.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAlex Marti Pujolras (YES)$12.9K@ 62.8¢0x1d60…453d🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAlex Marti Pujolras (YES)$10.0K@ 95.0¢0x1d60…453d🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAlex Marti Pujolras (YES)$10.0K@ 96.2¢0x1d60…453d🐋—about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1d60…453dAlex Marti Pujolras$30.1K
BUY VWAP 89.9¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.