PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Sion: Michael Zhu vs Thiago Cigarran

● quote 37 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $183.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $114.7KEvent: Sion: Michael Zhu vs Thiago Cigarran
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:60 trades$48.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 31 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLThiago Cigarran (NO)$17.7K@ 100¢·0x6982…a165

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$17.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$17.7K
6h
+$8.0K
tracked
$48.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$608 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 37 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 31 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 09:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Zhu and Thiago Cigarran in the Sion, Switzerland, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 5:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Zhu' if Michael Zhu advances against Thiago Cigarran. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Cigarran' if Thiago Cigarran advances against Michael Zhu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.7K → $145 · 48s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$17.7K
6h+$8.0K
24h+$8.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h26.3¢▼ below by 26.2pp
VWAP 7d26.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$43
70¢
$0
65¢
$9
60¢
$74
55¢
$8.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$4.3K
40¢
$151
35¢
$622
30¢
$13.0K
25¢
$3.7K
20¢
$0
15¢
$37
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$17.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLThiago Cigarran (NO)$17.7K@ 99.9¢0x6982…a165🐋—about 1 hour ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooThiago Cigarran$11.4K
BUY VWAP 66.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.