Sion: Dimitris Sakellaridis vs Gian Luca Tanner

● quote 74 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $240.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $166.5KEvent: Sion: Dimitris Sakellaridis vs Gian Luca Tanner
99.9¢
YES
0.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:54 trades$75.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 99 min agoofficial metadata 69 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDimitris Sakellaridis (YES)$20.3K@ 68¢·0xe30e…6b87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.0K
6h
+$54.2K
tracked
$75.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 74 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 99 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 69 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 10:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Dimitris Sakellaridis and Gian Luca Tanner in the Sion, Switzerland, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 6:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dimitris Sakellaridis' if Dimitris Sakellaridis advances against Gian Luca Tanner. This market will resolve to 'Gian Luca Tanner' if Gian Luca Tanner advances against Dimitris Sakellaridis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Dimitris Sakellaridis@ 65.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +34.1pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Dimitris Sakellaridis@ 70.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $28.7K$16.3K · 19s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$5.0K
6h+$54.2K
24h+$55.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h68.4¢▲ above by 31.5pp
VWAP 7d68.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.0K
90¢
$11
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$126
70¢
$3
65¢
$52.7K
60¢
$17.8K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDimitris Sakellaridis (YES)$20.3K@ 67.6¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe30e…6b87Dimitris Sakellaridis$56.5K
BUY VWAP 66.4¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.