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Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Vallejo

● quote 103 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $411.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $327.7KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Vallejo
73.5¢
YES
26.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection32Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:142 trades$117.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 110 min agoofficial metadata 103 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$11.3K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$11.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTommy Paul (YES)$11.2K@ 80¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$36.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.8K
6h
+$63.7K
tracked
$117.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$11.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 67

Since latest confirmed build: +17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 103 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 110 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 103 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 17.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Adolfo Vallejo in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Adolfo Vallejo. This market will resolve to 'Adolfo Vallejo' if Adolfo Vallejo advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Tommy Paul2h ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Tommy Paul@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY NO2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY NO@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $9.3K → $30.9K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$36.8K
6h+$63.7K
24h+$67.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.5¢
VWAP 24h56.4¢▲ above by 17.1pp
VWAP 7d56.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$58.6K
90¢
$17.7K
85¢
$3.7K
80¢
$29.4K
75¢
$25.0K
70¢
← now
$8.3K
65¢
$13.4K
60¢
$8.9K
55¢
$6.2K
50¢
$17.5K
45¢
$32.3K
40¢
$5.9K
35¢
$6.2K
30¢
$8.5K
25¢
$1.7K
20¢
$52
15¢
$2.2K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTommy Paul (YES)$12.7K@ 99.9¢0xf377…4159🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTommy Paul (YES)$11.2K@ 99.9¢0x6982…a165🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTommy Paul (YES)$22.6K@ 97.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTommy Paul (YES)$15.3K@ 76.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul (YES)$10.0K@ 49.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul (YES)$11.2K@ 80.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hd777Tommy Paul$22.6K
BUY VWAP 97.0¢·1 fill
tennischampTommy Paul$11.2K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dAdolfo Vallejo$10.2K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills
0xaa77…15a5Tommy Paul$10.0K
BUY VWAP 47.7¢·2 fills
0x5f65…2036Tommy Paul$10.0K
BUY VWAP 49.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.