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Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur

UncategorizedSettlement: Alex de MinaurLiquidity: $836.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur
0.0¢
Arthur Fery payout
100.0¢
Alex de Minaur payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex de Minaur · $104.5K net·13 wallets(2🐋)·$137.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex de Minaur$64.0K@ 64¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alex de Minaur. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-24 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Alex de Minaur in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Alex de Minaur@ 91.0¢6d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.3pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Alex de Minaur6d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 74.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +16.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fery; negative values favor Alex de Minaur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fery · $9.0K
6hAlex de Minaur · $111.2K
24hAlex de Minaur · $122.9K

Arthur Fery price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fery price. Alex de Minaur fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fery probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h20.7¢▼ below by 20.7pp
VWAP 7d20.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fery price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$75.3K
30¢
$27.0K
25¢
$31.7K
20¢
$43.3K
15¢
$19.1K
10¢
$36.0K
5¢
$9.0K
0¢
← now
$57.7K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlex de Minaur$15.3K@ 99.9¢
LarryDaddy0xca97…49f6
🐋—6 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$12.0K@ 83.1¢
LarryDaddy0xca97…49f6
🐋—6 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$11.3K@ 97.7¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—6 days ago
SELLAlex de Minaur$14.0K@ 88.9¢
phredmoz0xe9d3…079f
🐋—6 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$64.0K@ 64.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—6 days ago
BUYArthur Fery$10.8K@ 30.4¢
kamloic0x5901…63a2
🐋—6 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$14.9K@ 74.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—6 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$12.6K@ 80.0¢
phredmoz0xe9d3…079f
🐋—6 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Alex de Minaur$82.2K
BUY VWAP 66.5¢·3 fills
swisstonyAlex de Minaur$20.9K
BUY VWAP 87.8¢·12 fills
kamloicArthur Fery$20.1K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·2 fills
backbackAlex de Minaur$14.3K
BUY VWAP 99.7¢·2 fills
phredmozAlex de Minaur$12.6K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
LarryDaddyAlex de Minaur$12.0K
BUY VWAP 83.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.