Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

● quote 16 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7MEvent: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:412 trades$624.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 21 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$39.3K@ 100¢·CORGI8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$34.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$34.2K
6h
−$4.9K
tracked
$624.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$4.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +50.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 16 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Iron Wing and Team Spirit in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Iron Wing" if Iron Wing win Game 2 against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 2 against Iron Wing. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
CORGI83 linked markets · $101.3K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $47.0K gross
gxxyy2 linked markets · $45.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Spirit@ 50.0¢26m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Iron Wing@ 51.0¢26m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $15.0K$200 · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$34.2K
6h$4.9K
24h$4.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h35.4¢▼ below by 35.4pp
VWAP 7d35.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$5.4K
65¢
$26.0K
60¢
$85.9K
55¢
$100.3K
50¢
$129.6K
45¢
$3.6K
40¢
$19.2K
35¢
$6.0K
30¢
$5.5K
25¢
$4.7K
20¢
$9.1K
15¢
$3.7K
10¢
$13.7K
5¢
$24.4K
0¢
← now
$135.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$11.4K@ 99.9¢
gxxyy0x4aec…4ce9
🐋24 minutes ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$16.9K@ 99.8¢0xcd36…0f01🐋29 minutes ago
SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$14.1K@ 99.1¢0x84fb…675e🐋31 minutes ago
BUYIron Wing (YES)$10.3K@ 63.0¢0x9100…7ade🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYIron Wing (YES)$10.0K@ 53.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$1.8Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs
0.1¢$610.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$414.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
9.5¢$237.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.4¢$237.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
70.5¢$202.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
74.5¢$193.9Kpriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2929…1dd0Team Spirit$21.5K
BUY VWAP 44.1¢·7 fills
0x8c0b…7aa5Team Spirit$19.0K
BUY VWAP 39.9¢·4 fills
0xe16d…5e30Iron Wing$17.0K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·3 fills
0xcd36…0f01Team Spirit$16.9K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill
0x2146…d41bTeam Spirit$14.7K
BUY VWAP 46.7¢·2 fills
0xc69b…2076Team Spirit$12.1K
BUY VWAP 88.3¢·4 fills
0x9100…7adeIron Wing$12.0K
BUY VWAP 63.1¢·2 fills
0xde24…4dedTeam Spirit$11.0K
BUY VWAP 47.1¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.