PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs

● quote 296 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $143.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $102.5KEvent: Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs
32.5¢
YES
67.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$42.7K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 310 min agoofficial metadata 297 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$12.4K@ 68¢·StasPanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.8K
6h
−$2.5K
tracked
$42.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$23.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 296 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 310 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 297 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Nigma Galaxy and Team Falcons in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Nigma Galaxy. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 70.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.8K
6h−$2.5K
24h−$32.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.5¢
VWAP 24h32.2¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d32.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$10.4K
30¢
← now
$43.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$11.5K@ 69.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$12.4K@ 68.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 14 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$2.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
88.5¢$605.7Kpriority41Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$422.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
47.5¢$304.4Kpriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.4¢$237.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
9.5¢$237.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
69.5¢$226.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StasPandaTeam Falcons$23.9K
BUY VWAP 68.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.