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Prague 2 (Doubles): Recek/Siniakov vs Kielan/Hernandez

● quote 12 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $45Official 24h Vol: $21.6KEvent: Prague 2 (Doubles): Recek/Siniakov vs Kielan/Hernandez
94.5¢
YES
5.5¢
NO
9.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution7Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$17.5K trackedsource coverage 81%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 723 min agoofficial metadata just now
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKielan/Hernandez (NO)$2.8K@ 50¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$17.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$10.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
9.1¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 12 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 723 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 9.1¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-25 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the doubles tennis match between Recek/Siniakov and Kielan/Hernandez in the Prague 2, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Recek/Siniakov' if the team of Recek/Siniakov advances against Kielan/Hernandez. This market will resolve to 'Kielan/Hernandez' if the team of Kielan/Hernandez advances against Recek/Siniakov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the team who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (a team withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$0
24h−$12.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current94.5¢
VWAP 24h52.9¢▲ above by 41.6pp
VWAP 7d52.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.3K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$12.7K
45¢
$1.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Kielan/Hernandez$10.7K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.