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Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

● quote 70 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $140.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $391.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
43.5¢
YES
56.5¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:102 trades$164.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 79 min agoofficial metadata 72 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $82.3K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$82.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ (NO)$68.5K@ 77¢·StasPanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$19.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.0K
6h
−$129.0K
tracked
$164.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$82.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 62

Since latest liquidity absorption: -21.2pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 70 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 79 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 72 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 23:55 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between GamerLegion and MOUZ in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against GamerLegion. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 19, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x6e2c…787c3 linked markets · $100.6K gross
0xf9d6…730a2 linked markets · $45.4K gross
0x10d7…bbf62 linked markets · $39.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY MOUZ@ 78.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +9.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 78.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.3pp · near-book depth $1.5K → $2.6K · 31s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$19.0K
6h−$129.0K
24h−$129.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h24.5¢▲ above by 18.9pp
VWAP 7d24.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.1K
65¢
$0
60¢
$33
55¢
$3.8K
50¢
$7.2K
45¢
$8.0K
40¢
← now
$11.8K
35¢
$14.6K
30¢
$34.1K
25¢
$11.5K
20¢
$105.6K
15¢
$23.9K
10¢
$10.5K
5¢
$3.5K
0¢
$29.5K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMOUZ (NO)$68.5K@ 77.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StasPandaMOUZ$68.5K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
0x6e2c…787cMOUZ$24.8K
BUY VWAP 66.6¢·18 fills
0xf559…f462MOUZ$13.8K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.