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Cincinnati Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $465.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $540.8KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection51Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:112 trades$303.5K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $116.1K·6 wallets(2🐋)·$122.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$41.0K@ 82¢·0x3970…44ce

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$154.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$154.8K
6h
−$251.2K
tracked
$303.5K

6 verified profitable wallets: −$116.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-25 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel Cerundolo' if Juan Manuel Cerundolo advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Felix Auger-Aliassime@ 92.0¢37m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.3pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Felix Auger-Aliassime@ 91.0¢37m ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.3pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Felix Auger-Aliassime37m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Felix Auger-Aliassime@ 77.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$154.8K
6h−$251.2K
24h−$260.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h12.8¢▼ below by 12.7pp
VWAP 7d12.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.6K
20¢
$109.5K
15¢
$69.7K
10¢
$6.2K
5¢
$10.5K
0¢
← now
$113.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$20.2K@ 99.9¢0x2037…473d🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$15.0K@ 99.9¢0x44a1…bd21🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$11.3K@ 97.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$11.3K@ 97.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$11.2K@ 97.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$11.3K@ 97.8¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$11.3K@ 97.7¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$28.4K@ 78.3¢0x5901…63a2🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$19.8K@ 80.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime (NO)$41.0K@ 82.0¢0x3970…44ce🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyFelix Auger-Aliassime$67.3K
BUY VWAP 87.9¢·11 fills
0x3970…44ceFelix Auger-Aliassime$41.0K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·1 fill
tennischampFelix Auger-Aliassime$33.9K
BUY VWAP 97.9¢·3 fills
0x5901…63a2Felix Auger-Aliassime$28.4K
BUY VWAP 78.3¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dFelix Auger-Aliassime$28.3K
BUY VWAP 84.5¢·6 fills
0x2037…473dFelix Auger-Aliassime$20.2K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x44a1…bd21Felix Auger-Aliassime$15.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.