Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

● quote 92 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $262.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $488.6KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$221.8K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 106 min agoofficial metadata 88 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTaylor Fritz (YES)$14.0K@ 100¢·0xe9d3…079f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.3K
6h
+$55.2K
tracked
$221.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$26.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +76.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 92 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 106 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 88 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-25 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 2h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 2h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Daniel Merida Aguilar@ 24.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp1h INVALIDATED -22.9pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Taylor Fritz@ 80.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $5.0K$32.8K · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$5.3K
6h+$55.2K
24h+$57.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h89.2¢▲ above by 10.7pp
VWAP 7d88.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$85.5K
90¢
$13.1K
85¢
$41.5K
80¢
$37.4K
75¢
$52.3K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTaylor Fritz (YES)$14.0K@ 99.9¢0xe9d3…079f🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLTaylor Fritz (YES)$11.1K@ 97.2¢0x492b…45ee🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$11.4K@ 98.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$11.5K@ 97.9¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$11.4K@ 81.0¢0xe9d3…079f🐋about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyTaylor Fritz$26.7K
BUY VWAP 96.9¢·4 fills
0x492b…45eeTaylor Fritz$24.7K
BUY VWAP 91.1¢·13 fills
0x5f65…2036Daniel Merida Aguilar$18.0K
BUY VWAP 21.2¢·2 fills
0xe954…1ef1Taylor Fritz$16.3K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·4 fills
0x49e0…9af1Taylor Fritz$12.0K
BUY VWAP 80.1¢·3 fills
0xe9d3…079fTaylor Fritz$11.4K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.