Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

● quote 24 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $359.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $657.3KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:232 trades$269.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 18 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $13.4K·7 wallets(1🐋)·$32.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSara Bejlek (YES)$21.9K@ 100¢·0x9eb2…c8bf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$18.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$18.3K
6h
−$52.1K
tracked
$269.7K

7 verified profitable wallets: −$13.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 24 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-25 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Bejlek and Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sara Bejlek' if Sara Bejlek advances against Ekaterina Alexandrova. This market will resolve to 'Ekaterina Alexandrova' if Ekaterina Alexandrova advances against Sara Bejlek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Ekaterina Alexandrova@ 75.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -35.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Ekaterina Alexandrova2h ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Ekaterina Alexandrova@ 65.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Sara Bejlek@ 43.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -16.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $36$1.1K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$18.3K
6h$52.1K
24h$48.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h56.4¢▲ above by 43.5pp
VWAP 7d56.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$29.5K
90¢
$14.3K
85¢
$7.3K
80¢
$2.8K
75¢
$10.3K
70¢
$238
65¢
$19
60¢
$1.1K
55¢
$15.3K
50¢
$99.2K
45¢
$13.9K
40¢
$9.2K
35¢
$41.7K
30¢
$223
25¢
$16.1K
20¢
$6.4K
15¢
$2.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLSara Bejlek (YES)$21.9K@ 99.9¢0x9eb2…c8bf🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLSara Bejlek (YES)$13.4K@ 59.0¢0x0353…c2ff🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$11.5K@ 52.0¢0xd0fd…a7da🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYEkaterina Alexandrova (NO)$13.1K@ 49.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYEkaterina Alexandrova (NO)$10.0K@ 49.0¢0xaa77…15a5🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$11.4K@ 52.0¢0x9eb2…c8bf🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$10.8K@ 52.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xaa77…15a5Ekaterina Alexandrova$28.6K
BUY VWAP 57.6¢·3 fills
0xd0fd…a7daSara Bejlek$21.5K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills
CORGI8Sara Bejlek$16.9K
BUY VWAP 51.6¢·2 fills
redvinnyEkaterina Alexandrova$13.5K
BUY VWAP 61.5¢·6 fills
0x2c33…0563Ekaterina Alexandrova$13.1K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
0x492b…45eeSara Bejlek$11.6K
BUY VWAP 66.3¢·9 fills
0x9eb2…c8bfSara Bejlek$11.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.