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Quebec City: Jesper de Jong vs Dane Sweeny

● quote 91 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $240.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $109.8KEvent: Quebec City: Jesper de Jong vs Dane Sweeny
99.9¢
YES
1.8¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:34 trades$48.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 121 min agoofficial metadata 82 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDane Sweeny (NO)$13.2K@ 62¢·0xb2d2…3910

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.3K
6h
−$22.2K
tracked
$48.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +63.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 91 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 121 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 82 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-25 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jesper de Jong and Dane Sweeny in the Quebec City, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jesper de Jong' if Jesper de Jong advances against Dane Sweeny. This market will resolve to 'Dane Sweeny' if Dane Sweeny advances against Jesper de Jong. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Dane Sweeny@ 37.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $66.5K → $35.2K · 66s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.3K
6h−$22.2K
24h−$22.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h56.0¢▲ above by 43.9pp
VWAP 7d56.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.2K
90¢
$3.2K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$2.6K
70¢
$1.2K
65¢
$824
60¢
$26
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$11.0K
40¢
$7.1K
35¢
$15.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDane Sweeny (NO)$13.2K@ 62.0¢0xb2d2…3910🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb2d2…3910Dane Sweeny$28.7K
BUY VWAP 58.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.