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Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe

● quote 186 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $214.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $337.1KEvent: Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe
57.0¢
YES
43.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:80 trades$122.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 192 min agoofficial metadata 188 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.2K·2 wallets·$1.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRadu Mihai Papoe (NO)$20.0K@ 61¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$26.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$26.0K
6h
+$6.0K
tracked
$122.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$1.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 74% · priority 62

Since latest large flow: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 186 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 192 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 188 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 21.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-25 12:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Oriol Roca Batalla and Radu Mihai Papoe in the Prague 2, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Oriol Roca Batalla' if Oriol Roca Batalla advances against Radu Mihai Papoe. This market will resolve to 'Radu Mihai Papoe' if Radu Mihai Papoe advances against Oriol Roca Batalla. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Radu Mihai Papoe3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Radu Mihai Papoe@ 63.0¢3h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES UP 12.0pp · near-book depth $227 → $22.2K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$26.0K
6h+$6.0K
24h+$6.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.0¢
VWAP 24h52.4¢▲ above by 4.5pp
VWAP 7d52.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$11.3K
75¢
$1.6K
70¢
$12.3K
65¢
$12.4K
60¢
$9.2K
55¢
← now
$25.9K
50¢
$32.7K
45¢
$7.3K
40¢
$8.7K
35¢
$29.1K
30¢
$2.4K
25¢
$745
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$25.4K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOriol Roca Batalla (YES)$11.7K@ 51.4¢0x9d93…2cf1🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLRadu Mihai Papoe (NO)$20.0K@ 61.3¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLOriol Roca Batalla (YES)$11.4K@ 57.6¢0xe9d3…079f🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYRadu Mihai Papoe (NO)$13.0K@ 48.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Radu Mihai Papoe$17.7K
BUY VWAP 40.7¢·2 fills
0x9d93…2cf1Oriol Roca Batalla$11.7K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·1 fill
0x9d3e…986cRadu Mihai Papoe$10.3K
BUY VWAP 39.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.