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Prague 2: Maxim Mrva vs Nerman Fatic

● quote 105 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $262.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $321.1KEvent: Prague 2: Maxim Mrva vs Nerman Fatic
86.5¢
YES
13.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets42Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:91 trades$132.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 114 min agoofficial metadata 107 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $3.7K·2 wallets·$6.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaxim Mrva (YES)$18.3K@ 73¢·HVAB

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$15.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$15.4K
6h
−$4.0K
tracked
$132.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$3.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 55

Since latest large flow: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 105 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 114 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 107 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 12.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-25 12:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maxim Mrva and Nerman Fatic in the Prague 2, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Mrva' if Maxim Mrva advances against Nerman Fatic. This market will resolve to 'Nerman Fatic' if Nerman Fatic advances against Maxim Mrva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Maxim Mrva2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Maxim Mrva@ 75.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Nerman Fatic2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Nerman Fatic@ 59.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $5.9K → $672 · 47s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$15.4K
6h−$4.0K
24h−$4.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current86.5¢
VWAP 24h59.0¢▲ above by 27.5pp
VWAP 7d59.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$33.9K
90¢
$4.5K
85¢
← now
$31
80¢
$19.1K
75¢
$1.0K
70¢
$18.9K
65¢
$12.2K
60¢
$16.2K
55¢
$16
50¢
$9.6K
45¢
$31.6K
40¢
$11.0K
35¢
$12.6K
30¢
$7
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLMaxim Mrva (YES)$13.7K@ 99.9¢
LarryDaddy0xca97…49f6
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMaxim Mrva (YES)$18.3K@ 73.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNerman Fatic (NO)$11.0K@ 55.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLNerman Fatic (NO)$11.4K@ 53.8¢0xe9d3…079f🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNerman Fatic (NO)$11.9K@ 53.4¢0x9d3e…986c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNerman Fatic (NO)$12.5K@ 64.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HVABMaxim Mrva$21.8K
BUY VWAP 72.1¢·2 fills
0x5f65…2036Nerman Fatic$16.0K
BUY VWAP 34.8¢·2 fills
0x9d3e…986cNerman Fatic$15.8K
BUY VWAP 53.8¢·2 fills
LarryDaddyMaxim Mrva$12.9K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·2 fills
HVABNerman Fatic$12.5K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.