Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli

● quote 89 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $337.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli
54.5¢
YES
45.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection39Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:271 trades$617.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 59%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 95 min agoofficial metadata 89 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$29.8K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$71.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$50.0K@ 87¢·Marcoli

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$230.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$230.7K
6h
+$267.3K
tracked
$617.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$29.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 89 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 95 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 89 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Flavio Cobolli in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Flavio Cobolli. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Flavio Cobolli@ 45.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGESELL Flavio Cobolli@ 45.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 88.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -28.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Rafael Jodar@ 86.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -28.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.1K$5.0K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$230.7K
6h+$267.3K
24h+$264.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.5¢
VWAP 24h74.9¢▼ below by 20.4pp
VWAP 7d74.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$2.5K
85¢
$135.8K
80¢
$111.2K
75¢
$52.9K
70¢
$127.9K
65¢
$34.7K
60¢
$23.1K
55¢
$81.1K
50¢
← now
$37.8K
45¢
$4.9K
40¢
$5.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLFlavio Cobolli (NO)$22.0K@ 40.5¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLFlavio Cobolli (NO)$29.0K@ 40.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$18.5K@ 84.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$10.1K@ 84.0¢0xde9f…d43c🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$10.1K@ 84.0¢0x42c9…9623🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$35.0K@ 84.8¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$50.0K@ 86.6¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$16.1K@ 70.3¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$19.0K@ 76.1¢0x772f…8145🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$12.0K@ 79.2¢0x772f…8145🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli (NO)$10.0K@ 27.6¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli (NO)$22.2K@ 27.3¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MarcoliRafael Jodar$85.0K
BUY VWAP 85.9¢·2 fills
0x772f…8145Rafael Jodar$45.4K
BUY VWAP 78.3¢·4 fills
0x5f65…2036Flavio Cobolli$42.2K
BUY VWAP 28.2¢·4 fills
swisstonyRafael Jodar$34.7K
BUY VWAP 79.9¢·8 fills
0x5268…135dRafael Jodar$31.0K
BUY VWAP 70.4¢·6 fills
0x492b…45eeRafael Jodar$20.6K
BUY VWAP 82.3¢·10 fills
0x0353…c2ffRafael Jodar$18.8K
BUY VWAP 71.7¢·3 fills
0x66d1…c18fRafael Jodar$16.3K
BUY VWAP 74.6¢·7 fills
ferrariChampions2026Rafael Jodar$16.1K
BUY VWAP 70.3¢·1 fill
0xde9f…d43cRafael Jodar$12.7K
BUY VWAP 84.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.