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Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex de Minaur

UncategorizedSettlement: Arthur FilsLiquidity: $405.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $740.1KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex de Minaur
100.0¢
Arthur Fils payout
0.0¢
Alex de Minaur payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Fils · $53.8K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$56.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLArthur Fils$23.1K@ 100¢·beeemw

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Arthur Fils. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-26 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Alex de Minaur in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 41.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 39.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Alex de Minaur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex de Minaur · $21.7K
6hAlex de Minaur · $12.6K
24hAlex de Minaur · $2.4K

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Alex de Minaur fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h82.0¢▲ above by 18.0pp
VWAP 7d81.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$185.8K
90¢
$3.2K
85¢
$8.8K
80¢
$283
75¢
$27.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$84.8K
55¢
$58.8K
50¢
$2.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLArthur Fils$23.1K@ 99.9¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—4 days ago
SELLArthur Fils$12.0K@ 99.9¢
alaskabaked0xaa77…15a5
🐋—4 days ago
SELLArthur Fils$17.4K@ 99.9¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—4 days ago
SELLArthur Fils$19.4K@ 99.9¢
Tantula0xd607…842a
🐋—4 days ago
SELLArthur Fils$20.0K@ 99.9¢
agrarward0x80cf…7611
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$10.4K@ 98.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$11.5K@ 98.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$17.0K@ 97.6¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$16.8K@ 97.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$18.2K@ 78.8¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$21.3K@ 60.8¢
AGUGava0x0353…c2ff
🐋—4 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$10.0K@ 41.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—4 days ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$20.0K@ 40.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$10.5K@ 62.0¢
AGUGava0x0353…c2ff
🐋—4 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Alex de Minaur$45.0K
BUY VWAP 36.1¢·4 fills
swisstonyArthur Fils$42.2K
BUY VWAP 97.6¢·5 fills
AGUGavaArthur Fils$31.7K
BUY VWAP 61.2¢·2 fills
beeemwArthur Fils$18.2K
BUY VWAP 78.8¢·1 fill
afrazArthur Fils$17.0K
BUY VWAP 97.6¢·1 fill
TantulaArthur Fils$10.3K
BUY VWAP 58.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.