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China vs. Lebanon

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $47.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $179.0KEvent: China vs. Lebanon
100.0¢
China
0.1¢
Lebanon
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:51 trades$23.1K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLChina$7.9K@ 100¢·beeemw

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$899
6h
−$8.7K
tracked
$23.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 52 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-07 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.fiba.basketball/basketballworldcup/2027/qualifiers
Outcome meaning

•If the China win, the market will resolve to "China".

•If the Lebanon win, the market will resolve to "Lebanon".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Asia game, scheduled for August 31 at 6:00AM ET: If the China win, the market will resolve to "China". If the Lebanon win, the market will resolve to "Lebanon". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Lebanon DOWN 6.4pp · near-book depth $18 → $5 · 43s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor China; negative values favor Lebanon. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLebanon · $899
6hLebanon · $8.7K
24hLebanon · $6.0K

China price VWAP

Volume-weighted China price. Lebanon fills are converted to the complementary China probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h85.3¢▲ above by 14.7pp
VWAP 7d85.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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China price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$11.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$3.0K
80¢
$171
75¢
$606
70¢
$585
65¢
$4.3K
60¢
$2.9K
55¢
$212
50¢
$163
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.