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Spread: 49ers (-14.5)

● quote 55s ago
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $184.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $90.6KEvent: Cardinals vs. 49ers
29.5¢
49ers
70.5¢
Cardinals
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$43.3K trackedsource coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 525 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cardinals · $21.5K net·2 wallets·$26.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCardinals$9.3K@ 70¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$43.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Cardinals · $21.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 525 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 20:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 15 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cardinals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cardinals".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 15 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cardinals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cardinals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
texaskid4 linked markets · $247.6K gross
HomeRunHazard5 linked markets · $72.6K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r3 linked markets · $42.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 49ers; negative values favor Cardinals. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h49ers · $0
6h49ers · $0
24hCardinals · $18.0K

49ers price VWAP

Volume-weighted 49ers price. Cardinals fills are converted to the complementary 49ers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h29.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d29.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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49ers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$28.6K
25¢
← now
$17.1K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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50.5¢$220.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardCardinals$22.8K
BUY VWAP 70.4¢·3 fills
0xbc43…96d349ers$12.6K
BUY VWAP 29.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.