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Spread: Bills (-6.5)

Sports→Settlement: BillsLiquidity: $328.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $598.7KEvent: Chargers vs. Bills
100.0¢
Bills payout
0.0¢
Chargers payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:59 trades$300.6K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 142 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bills · $11.1K net·2 wallets·$13.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBills$172.6K@ 56¢·Tiger200

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Bills. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chargers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chargers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard9 linked markets · $253.8K gross
Tiger2002 linked markets · $218.0K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $126.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 56.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -37.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 56.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 56.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Bills UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $8 → $187 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bills; negative values favor Chargers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBills · $0
6hChargers · $7.6K
24hBills · $244.3K

Bills price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bills price. Chargers fills are converted to the complementary Bills probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h55.7¢▲ above by 44.3pp
VWAP 7d55.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bills price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$9
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$116
60¢
$0
55¢
$302.4K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$7
25¢
$0
20¢
$1
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBills$10.3K@ 56.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYBills$172.6K@ 55.9¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYBills$41.9K@ 56.0¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBills$34.8K@ 56.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYChargers$11.5K@ 45.0¢0xd3a0…f136🐋—about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Tiger200Bills$182.9K
BUY VWAP 55.9¢·2 fills
JsramBills$41.9K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
liquiditycrisisBills$34.8K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
0xd3a0…f136Chargers$13.9K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
HerdoniaBills$12.4K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·36 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.