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LoL: Disguised vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

● quote 44s ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $285.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $90.6KEvent: LoL: Disguised vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
0.1¢
Disguised
100.0¢
Sentinels
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets78Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$32.7K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 93 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sentinels · $11.0K net·3 wallets·$14.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSentinels$7.8K@ 90¢·0xf201…527e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$26.0K
tracked
$32.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: Sentinels · $11.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 93 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win the match against Sentinels.

•This market will resolve to "Sentinels" if Sentinels win the match against Disguised.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Disguised and Sentinels in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win the match against Sentinels. This market will resolve to "Sentinels" if Sentinels win the match against Disguised. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
RoshanMVP2 linked markets · $40.0K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $18.4K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $17.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Disguised; negative values favor Sentinels. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDisguised · $0
6hSentinels · $26.0K
24hSentinels · $29.6K

Disguised price VWAP

Volume-weighted Disguised price. Sentinels fills are converted to the complementary Disguised probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h8.7¢▼ below by 8.6pp
VWAP 7d8.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Disguised price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$6.6K
15¢
$1.5K
10¢
$7.8K
5¢
$4.8K
0¢
← now
$12.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RoshanMVPSentinels$12.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·3 fills
0xf201…527eSentinels$10.8K
BUY VWAP 90.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.