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Sion: Alex Marti Pujolras vs Dimitar Kuzmanov

● quote 86 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $221.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $10.0KEvent: Sion: Alex Marti Pujolras vs Dimitar Kuzmanov
0.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
1.7¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection73Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$23.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 99 min agoofficial metadata 78 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDimitar Kuzmanov (NO)$14.3K@ 98¢·hd777

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$17.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.1K
6h
−$17.1K
tracked
$23.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$6.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.7¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 86 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 99 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 78 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Marti Pujolras and Dimitar Kuzmanov in the Sion, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Marti Pujolras' if Alex Marti Pujolras advances against Dimitar Kuzmanov. This market will resolve to 'Dimitar Kuzmanov' if Dimitar Kuzmanov advances against Alex Marti Pujolras. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$17.1K
6h−$17.1K
24h−$17.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h1.7¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d1.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$23.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDimitar Kuzmanov (NO)$14.3K@ 98.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hd777Dimitar Kuzmanov$14.3K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.