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Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek

● quote 124 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $471.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $339.2KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek
66.5¢
YES
33.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection45Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:83 trades$115.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 128 min agoofficial metadata 125 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$5.3K·4 wallets·$22.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAryna Sabalenka (YES)$15.2K@ 60¢·0xaa77…15a5

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$48.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$48.9K
6h
+$82.1K
tracked
$115.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$5.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 72

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 124 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 128 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 125 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Sara Bejlek. This market will resolve to 'Sara Bejlek' if Sara Bejlek advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $8 → $156 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$48.9K
6h+$82.1K
24h+$88.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.5¢
VWAP 24h71.5¢▼ below by 5.0pp
VWAP 7d71.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$2.0K
90¢
$2.8K
85¢
$39.7K
80¢
$5.7K
75¢
$4.4K
70¢
$12.3K
65¢
← now
$5.1K
60¢
$28.1K
55¢
$9.4K
50¢
$34.4K
45¢
$1.7K
40¢
$3.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$9.1K
20¢
$2.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$5.7K
5¢
$0
0¢
$19.7K

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAryna Sabalenka (YES)$11.2K@ 51.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka (YES)$15.2K@ 60.0¢0xaa77…15a5🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KevinEasyMoney27Aryna Sabalenka$30.0K
BUY VWAP 60.6¢·5 fills
0xaa77…15a5Aryna Sabalenka$15.2K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
AV23IUaAryna Sabalenka$11.2K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.