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LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

● quote 10s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $335.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $319.4KEvent: LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:131 trades$152.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$44.0K·4 wallets·$44.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSentinels (YES)$30.0K@ 100¢·verifly

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$20.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$20.1K
6h
+$7.6K
tracked
$152.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$44.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 20.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Sentinels and FlyQuest in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Sentinels" if Sentinels win the match against FlyQuest. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match against Sentinels. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $56.4K gross
5e46h3 linked markets · $40.0K gross
NrNrfNrf22 linked markets · $32.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Sentinels1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Sentinels@ 80.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Sentinels2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY FlyQuest2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.6pp · near-book depth $6 → $27 · 16s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$20.1K
6h+$7.6K
24h+$7.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h71.7¢▲ above by 28.3pp
VWAP 7d71.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$54.6K
90¢
$10
85¢
$185
80¢
$22
75¢
$21.8K
70¢
$8.2K
65¢
$32
60¢
$0
55¢
$149
50¢
$7.9K
45¢
$59.3K
40¢
$252
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLSentinels (YES)$30.0K@ 99.9¢
verifly0x5286…0d47
🐋—39 minutes ago
BUYSentinels (YES)$14.0K@ 49.0¢
pmesport0xef4b…2577
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFlyQuest (NO)$19.0K@ 54.0¢
Jer-Predict0xd391…b109
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf201…527eSentinels$21.5K
BUY VWAP 77.3¢·8 fills
pmesportSentinels$20.6K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·2 fills
Jer-PredictFlyQuest$19.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
5e46hSentinels$14.0K
BUY VWAP 97.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.