Sion: Benjamin Hassan vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux

● quote 203 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $318.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $344.1KEvent: Sion: Benjamin Hassan vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux
45.5¢
YES
54.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$140.8K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 212 min agoofficial metadata 205 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGeoffrey Blancaneaux (NO)$31.6K@ 64¢·0x3ddf…c7b7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.7K
6h
−$4.0K
tracked
$140.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$58 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 49

Since latest large flow: -5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 203 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 212 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 205 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Benjamin Hassan and Geoffrey Blancaneaux in the Sion, originally scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Benjamin Hassan' if Benjamin Hassan advances against Geoffrey Blancaneaux. This market will resolve to 'Geoffrey Blancaneaux' if Geoffrey Blancaneaux advances against Benjamin Hassan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Benjamin Hassan@ 40.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -35.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Benjamin Hassan@ 43.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +25.0pp1h CONFIRMED +12.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Geoffrey Blancaneaux@ 57.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +25.0pp1h CONFIRMED +12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux@ 61.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -30.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $46.6K$1.7K · 13s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.7K
6h$4.0K
24h$4.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h42.3¢▲ above by 3.2pp
VWAP 7d42.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.9K
65¢
$1.7K
60¢
$337
55¢
$820
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
← now
$38.8K
40¢
$32.8K
35¢
$58.6K
30¢
$3.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLBenjamin Hassan (YES)$21.9K@ 36.7¢0x3ddf…c7b7🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYBenjamin Hassan (YES)$31.0K@ 45.9¢0x3ddf…c7b7🐋about 5 hours ago
SELLGeoffrey Blancaneaux (NO)$28.1K@ 55.5¢0x3ddf…c7b7🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYGeoffrey Blancaneaux (NO)$31.6K@ 63.8¢0x3ddf…c7b7🐋about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3ddf…c7b7Benjamin Hassan$32.6K
BUY VWAP 46.1¢·2 fills
0x3ddf…c7b7Geoffrey Blancaneaux$31.6K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.