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Prague 2: Norbert Gombos vs Radu Mihai Papoe

● quote 70 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $226.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $299.8KEvent: Prague 2: Norbert Gombos vs Radu Mihai Papoe
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection24Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:80 trades$165.1K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 82 min agoofficial metadata 60 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNorbert Gombos (YES)$20.3K@ 100¢·0x2978…b511

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$40.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$40.2K
6h
−$23.1K
tracked
$165.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$178 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 70 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 82 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 60 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Norbert Gombos and Radu Mihai Papoe in the Prague 2, originally scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Norbert Gombos' if Norbert Gombos advances against Radu Mihai Papoe. This market will resolve to 'Radu Mihai Papoe' if Radu Mihai Papoe advances against Norbert Gombos. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $62.2K → $14.0K · 22s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$40.2K
6h−$23.1K
24h−$30.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h81.5¢▲ above by 18.4pp
VWAP 7d81.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$91.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.0K
80¢
$3.0K
75¢
$14.4K
70¢
$13.0K
65¢
$2.9K
60¢
$2.5K
55¢
$1
50¢
$29
45¢
$26.3K
40¢
$10.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNorbert Gombos (YES)$18.3K@ 99.9¢
blket0xb5db…5800
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLNorbert Gombos (YES)$20.3K@ 99.9¢0x2978…b511🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNorbert Gombos (YES)$16.0K@ 98.4¢
blket0xb5db…5800
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

blketNorbert Gombos$18.0K
BUY VWAP 98.3¢·2 fills
0x2978…b511Norbert Gombos$12.5K
BUY VWAP 75.4¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.