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LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Team Heretics Academy (BO5) - LES Playoffs

● quote 33s ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $114.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $190.2KEvent: LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Team Heretics Academy (BO5) - LES Playoffs
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection41Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:53 trades$28.8K trackedsource coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (YES)$4.5K@ 79¢·0x9e3e…f882

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$11.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$11.8K
6h
−$5.8K
tracked
$28.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 21:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix and Team Heretics Academy in the LES Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "⁠Movistar KOI Fénix" if ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix win the match against Team Heretics Academy. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics Academy" if Team Heretics Academy win the match against ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h3 linked markets · $205.5K gross
0x3a01…bc5e2 linked markets · $6.1K gross
0x8dc5…c07d2 linked markets · $5.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $220 → $79 · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$11.8K
6h−$5.8K
24h−$5.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h83.0¢▲ above by 17.0pp
VWAP 7d83.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$13.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.2K
75¢
$4.5K
70¢
$1.1K
65¢
$2.3K
60¢
$1.1K
55¢
$250
50¢
$4.1K
45¢
$152
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$97
25¢
$1
20¢
$0
15¢
$100
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.