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Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winner

● quote 50 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $209.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $154.5KEvent: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
76.0¢
YES
24.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection32Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 100%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:145 trades$202.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 54 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $9.9K·3 wallets·$15.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIron Wing (YES)$14.0K@ 49¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$62.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$62.0K
6h
+$76.0K
tracked
$202.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$9.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 100% · priority 69

Since latest market sweep: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 50 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 54 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 08:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between Iron Wing and BoomBoys in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Iron Wing" if Iron Wing win Game 2 against BoomBoys. This market will resolve to "BoomBoys" if BoomBoys win Game 2 against Iron Wing. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x67ac…edf13 linked markets · $82.3K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $59.0K gross
zb83 linked markets · $44.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 77.0¢53m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Iron Wing56m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Iron Wing@ 62.0¢57m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $62 → $2.1K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$62.0K
6h+$76.0K
24h+$67.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current76.0¢
VWAP 24h55.8¢▲ above by 20.2pp
VWAP 7d55.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.1K
75¢
← now
$18.4K
70¢
$11.3K
65¢
$22.7K
60¢
$46.8K
55¢
$29.2K
50¢
$48.6K
45¢
$66.3K
40¢
$4.6K
35¢
$24.1K
30¢
$7.2K
25¢
$19.6K
20¢
$13.7K
15¢
$12.6K
10¢
$12.0K
5¢
$642
0¢
$219.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLBoomBoys (NO)$22.7K@ 99.9¢0xdc3f…5e0d🐋—15 minutes ago
SELLBoomBoys (NO)$13.9K@ 99.9¢0x47e8…efdc🐋—16 minutes ago
SELLBoomBoys (NO)$36.9K@ 99.9¢0xed44…4f76🐋—17 minutes ago
SELLBoomBoys (NO)$12.3K@ 99.9¢0x53b2…9f96🐋—17 minutes ago
SELLBoomBoys (NO)$14.7K@ 99.9¢0x84fb…675e🐋—18 minutes ago
SELLBoomBoys (NO)$13.0K@ 99.9¢0xfdc8…c678🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYIron Wing (YES)$14.0K@ 49.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Iron Wing$20.0K
BUY VWAP 48.8¢·3 fills
0xdc3f…5e0dBoomBoys$17.0K
BUY VWAP 74.8¢·2 fills
zb8BoomBoys$11.3K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.