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Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 8 minutesLiquidity: $44.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $91.8KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
38.5¢
YES
61.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection40Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$39.6K tracked67% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $23.6K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$23.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$21.9K@ 64¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$16.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$16.0K
6h
−$7.6K
tracked
$39.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$23.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 43 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for August 21 at 7:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $75.7K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $35.2K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $10.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 36.0¢39m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 66.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$16.0K
6h−$7.6K
24h−$7.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h36.0¢▲ above by 2.5pp
VWAP 7d36.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$39.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$16.0K@ 36.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$21.9K@ 64.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Tampa Bay Rays$21.9K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafBaltimore Orioles$16.0K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.