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Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe

● quote 5 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $810.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets44Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:239 trades$464.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$36.8K·7 wallets(2🐋)·$84.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrances Tiafoe (NO)$50.0K@ 50¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.1K
6h
−$36.0K
tracked
$464.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: +$36.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +50.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 50.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-29 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Brandon Nakashima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Frances Tiafoe2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 50.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 50.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 49.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $82.2K → $75.8K · 29s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.1K
6h−$36.0K
24h−$5.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h40.0¢▼ below by 39.9pp
VWAP 7d40.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$143
55¢
$49.2K
50¢
$176.3K
45¢
$50.0K
40¢
$9.1K
35¢
$30.7K
30¢
$60.3K
25¢
$12.9K
20¢
$4.4K
15¢
$14
10¢
$2.8K
5¢
$21.3K
0¢
← now
$45.7K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFrances Tiafoe (NO)$14.9K@ 99.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—38 minutes ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe (NO)$16.0K@ 69.0¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima (YES)$17.4K@ 58.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe (NO)$20.0K@ 67.0¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe (NO)$50.0K@ 50.4¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe (NO)$11.0K@ 49.0¢
kamloic0x5901…63a2
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe (NO)$13.0K@ 49.4¢
alaskabaked0xaa77…15a5
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima (YES)$13.0K@ 52.0¢
ChallengerSpecialist0x5ba6…0f07
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe (NO)$15.1K@ 49.0¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima (YES)$23.0K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaFrances Tiafoe$50.0K
BUY VWAP 50.4¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Brandon Nakashima$24.1K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills
hurricanFrances Tiafoe$20.0K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
tennischampBrandon Nakashima$17.4K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
afrazFrances Tiafoe$15.1K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
hd777Frances Tiafoe$14.9K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
alaskabakedFrances Tiafoe$13.0K
BUY VWAP 49.4¢·1 fill
ChallengerSpecialistBrandon Nakashima$13.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0xa0f2…1848Frances Tiafoe$11.5K
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·10 fills
0x2c33…0563Brandon Nakashima$11.5K
BUY VWAP 34.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.