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UFC Fight Night: Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $411.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $153.3KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago (Bantamweight, Prelims)
76.0¢
Lawrence Lui payout
24.0¢
Hector Santiago payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:104 trades$36.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata 31 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lawrence Lui · $2.3K net·7 wallets·$2.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHector Santiago$12.0K@ 24¢·jtwyslljy

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-30 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lawrence Lui" if Lawrence Lui is officially declared the winner of the fight against Hector Santiago at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Hector Santiago" if Hector Santiago is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Lawrence Lui" if Lawrence Lui is officially declared the winner of the fight against Hector Santiago at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Hector Santiago" if Hector Santiago is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 32m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 32m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Lawrence Lui DOWN 19.5pp · near-book depth $138 → $26 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lawrence Lui; negative values favor Hector Santiago. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHector Santiago · $1.3K
6hHector Santiago · $13.3K
24hHector Santiago · $330

Lawrence Lui price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lawrence Lui price. Hector Santiago fills are converted to the complementary Lawrence Lui probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current76.0¢
VWAP 24h67.4¢▲ above by 8.6pp
VWAP 7d67.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lawrence Lui price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$21.2K
70¢
$8.5K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$339
40¢
$291
35¢
$2.9K
30¢
$398
25¢
$334
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.2K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$17

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHector Santiago$12.0K@ 24.0¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

jtwyslljyHector Santiago$15.0K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.