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Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-09-05?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 24 minutesLiquidity: $411.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $499.3KEvent: Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Union Berlin
71.5¢
YES
28.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 92%
24h sample:23 trades$330.1K tracked35% 🐋source coverage 66%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$70.7K@ 70¢·ripley86alien

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$962
6h
+$284.6K
tracked
$330.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 92% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•If Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 5, 2026 If Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 70.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 70.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 69.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $962
6hYES · $284.6K
24hYES · $295.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current71.5¢
VWAP 24h69.6¢▲ above by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d69.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$197.6K
65¢
$134.5K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$17.4K@ 71.0¢
p12520xf975…4354
🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYYES$16.9K@ 71.0¢
p12520xf975…4354
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYYES$21.0K@ 70.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$70.0K@ 70.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$70.7K@ 70.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$34.5K@ 69.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYYES$55.2K@ 69.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYYES$20.4K@ 68.0¢
ripley86alien0x168a…0d24
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ripley86alienYes$271.8K
BUY VWAP 69.5¢·6 fills
p1252Yes$16.9K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814Yes$11.2K
BUY VWAP 68.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.