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Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $22.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.8KEvent: SC Paderborn 07 vs. SC Freiburg - More Markets
17.5¢
SC Freiburg
82.5¢
SC Paderborn 07
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly45Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$49.9K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 51s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSC Paderborn 07$40.2K@ 74¢·0xe427…8266

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$661
6h
−$49.8K
tracked
$49.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: SC Paderborn 07 · $661 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 58 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "SC Freiburg" if SC Freiburg win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "SC Paderborn 07".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for September 5 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "SC Freiburg" if SC Freiburg win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "SC Paderborn 07". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: SC Paderborn 07 UP 11.5pp · near-book depth $8.7K → $89 · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor SC Freiburg; negative values favor SC Paderborn 07. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSC Paderborn 07 · $661
6hSC Paderborn 07 · $49.8K
24hSC Paderborn 07 · $49.8K

SC Freiburg price VWAP

Volume-weighted SC Freiburg price. SC Paderborn 07 fills are converted to the complementary SC Freiburg probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current17.5¢
VWAP 24h25.7¢▼ below by 8.2pp
VWAP 7d25.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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SC Freiburg price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$666
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$40.2K
20¢
$9.0K
15¢
← now
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSC Paderborn 07$40.2K@ 74.4¢0xe427…8266🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe427…8266SC Paderborn 07$49.2K
BUY VWAP 74.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.