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Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $27.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $174.8KEvent: Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin
97.4¢
Aidan Mayo
2.6¢
Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$111.1K tracked29% 🐋source coverage 68%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 63 min agoofficial metadata 28s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAidan Mayo$11.5K@ 86¢·Jan777

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$108.6K
tracked
$111.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin · $45 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +6.7pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 63 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aidan Mayo and Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin in the Kingston 2, Jamaica, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aidan Mayo' if Aidan Mayo advances against Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin. This market will resolve to 'Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin' if Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin advances against Aidan Mayo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Aidan Mayo@ 91.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aidan Mayo@ 91.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aidan Mayo; negative values favor Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAidan Mayo · $0
6hAidan Mayo · $108.6K
24hAidan Mayo · $108.6K

Aidan Mayo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aidan Mayo price. Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin fills are converted to the complementary Aidan Mayo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.4¢
VWAP 24h84.0¢▲ above by 13.4pp
VWAP 7d84.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aidan Mayo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.2K
90¢
$5
85¢
$48.0K
80¢
$52.3K
75¢
$9.6K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAidan Mayo$10.6K@ 82.0¢
Jan7770xb8e3…aaf2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAidan Mayo$10.7K@ 84.0¢
Jan7770xb8e3…aaf2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAidan Mayo$11.3K@ 84.0¢
Jan7770xb8e3…aaf2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAidan Mayo$10.1K@ 84.0¢
Jan7770xb8e3…aaf2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAidan Mayo$11.5K@ 86.0¢
Jan7770xb8e3…aaf2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAidan Mayo$10.5K@ 85.0¢
Jan7770xb8e3…aaf2
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Jan777Aidan Mayo$108.8K
BUY VWAP 83.8¢·17 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.