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Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $208.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.7KEvent: Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky
61.0¢
Indiana Fever
39.0¢
Chicago Sky
10.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$26.5K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 126 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIndiana Fever$13.2K@ 50¢·winwin518168

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$101
tracked
$26.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Chicago Sky · $6.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
10.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 126 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 10.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wnba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Indiana Fever" if the Indiana Fever win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago Sky". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chicago Sky".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 23 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Indiana Fever" if the Indiana Fever win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago Sky". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chicago Sky". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $21.5K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $17.1K gross
SunlineTicker2 linked markets · $13.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Indiana Fever DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $549 → $1.7K · 51s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Indiana Fever; negative values favor Chicago Sky. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIndiana Fever · $0
6hChicago Sky · $101
24hChicago Sky · $101

Indiana Fever price VWAP

Volume-weighted Indiana Fever price. Chicago Sky fills are converted to the complementary Indiana Fever probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.0¢
VWAP 24h49.9¢▲ above by 11.1pp
VWAP 7d49.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Indiana Fever price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$13.3K
45¢
$13.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYIndiana Fever$13.2K@ 49.9¢
winwin5181680x6820…1c19
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

winwin518168Indiana Fever$13.2K
BUY VWAP 49.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.