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US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli

UncategorizedSettlement: Toby SamuelLiquidity: $190.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $101.6KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli
100.0¢
Toby Samuel payout
0.0¢
Francesco Maestrelli payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Toby Samuel · $15.2K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$17.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToby Samuel$13.9K@ 99¢·swisstony

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Toby Samuel. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-31 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Samuel and Francesco Maestrelli in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Francesco Maestrelli. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Toby Samuel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 19h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Toby Samuel; negative values favor Francesco Maestrelli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hToby Samuel · $13.8K
6hToby Samuel · $11.5K
24hToby Samuel · $11.5K

Toby Samuel price VWAP

Volume-weighted Toby Samuel price. Francesco Maestrelli fills are converted to the complementary Toby Samuel probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h84.9¢▲ above by 15.1pp
VWAP 7d84.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Toby Samuel price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$18.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$9.3K
70¢
$0
65¢
$8.1K
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYToby Samuel$13.9K@ 98.5¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—1 day ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyToby Samuel$16.3K
BUY VWAP 98.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.