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US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Sumit Nagal

Sports→Settlement: Arthur GeaLiquidity: $138.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $83.9KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Sumit Nagal
100.0¢
Arthur Gea payout
0.0¢
Sumit Nagal payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Gea · $27.2K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$27.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Gea$24.9K@ 86¢·0b1fe

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Arthur Gea. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-01 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Sumit Nagal in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Sumit Nagal. This market will resolve to 'Sumit Nagal' if Sumit Nagal advances against Arthur Gea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Gea@ 92.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Gea; negative values favor Sumit Nagal. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSumit Nagal · $265
6hArthur Gea · $28.3K
24hArthur Gea · $29.5K

Arthur Gea price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Gea price. Sumit Nagal fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Gea probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h87.3¢▲ above by 12.7pp
VWAP 7d87.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Gea price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.4K
90¢
$45
85¢
$25.0K
80¢
$5.9K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Gea$24.9K@ 86.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0b1feArthur Gea$24.9K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.