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Winston-Salem Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $441.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $232.9KEvent: Winston-Salem Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi
48.5¢
Mattia Bellucci
51.5¢
Luciano Darderi
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$81.2K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 38s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mattia Bellucci · $63.8K net·5 wallets(3🐋)·$63.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMattia Bellucci$23.0K@ 46¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Mattia Bellucci SETUP
What the tape says

Mattia Bellucci pressure: $4.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.6K
6h
+$58.5K
tracked
$81.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: Mattia Bellucci · $63.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Mattia Bellucci or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Luciano Darderi in the Winston-Salem Open, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Luciano Darderi. This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Mattia Bellucci. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mattia Bellucci@ 47.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Mattia Bellucci@ 46.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mattia Bellucci; negative values favor Luciano Darderi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMattia Bellucci · $4.6K
6hMattia Bellucci · $58.5K
24hMattia Bellucci · $58.5K

Mattia Bellucci price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mattia Bellucci price. Luciano Darderi fills are converted to the complementary Mattia Bellucci probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h46.0¢▲ above by 2.5pp
VWAP 7d46.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mattia Bellucci price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$81.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMattia Bellucci$18.8K@ 46.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMattia Bellucci$11.0K@ 46.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMattia Bellucci$23.0K@ 46.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Mattia Bellucci$23.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Mattia Bellucci$18.8K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Mattia Bellucci$11.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.