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Patriots vs. Bills

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 15 hoursLiquidity: $1.3MOfficial 24h Vol: $350.5KEvent: Patriots vs. Bills
26.5¢
Patriots
73.5¢
Bills
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets83Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$95.9K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Patriots · $57.6K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$110.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPatriots$83.9K@ 26¢·maz26

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Bills pressure: $8.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.4K
6h
+$74.5K
tracked
$95.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: Patriots · $57.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 15h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bills or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots".

•If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz262 linked markets · $111.9K gross
ArielFilipino3 linked markets · $65.6K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $43.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Patriots@ 27.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Patriots; negative values favor Bills. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBills · $8.4K
6hPatriots · $74.5K
24hPatriots · $72.0K

Patriots price VWAP

Volume-weighted Patriots price. Bills fills are converted to the complementary Patriots probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.5¢
VWAP 24h26.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d26.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Patriots price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$121.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPatriots$83.9K@ 26.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBills$14.8K@ 73.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

maz26Patriots$83.9K
BUY VWAP 26.0¢·1 fill
maz26Bills$14.8K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
JustADonkBills$10.5K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.