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Spread: Saints (-2.5)

● quote 28s ago
Sports→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $576.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $4.2KEvent: Falcons vs. Saints
47.5¢
Saints
52.5¢
Falcons
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$23.6K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFalcons$23.6K@ 52¢·justwins

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$23.6K
tracked
$23.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 78 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Saints" if the Saints win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Falcons".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 5 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Saints" if the Saints win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Saints; negative values favor Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSaints · $0
6hFalcons · $23.6K
24hFalcons · $23.6K

Saints price VWAP

Volume-weighted Saints price. Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Saints probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h48.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d48.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Saints price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.9K
45¢
← now
$23.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFalcons$23.6K@ 52.0¢
justwins0xa2cc…0cbc
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

justwinsFalcons$23.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.