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Spread: Saints (-2.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: FalconsLiquidity: $411.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $443.3KEvent: Falcons vs. Saints
0.0¢
Saints payout
100.0¢
Falcons payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Saints · $39.6K net·4 wallets(2🐋)·$71.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFalcons$115.1K@ 53¢·Tiger200

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Falcons. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-06 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Saints" if the Saints win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Falcons".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 5 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Saints" if the Saints win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 24h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Sassy-Bucket2 linked markets · $464.0K gross
Kch-Temp3 linked markets · $343.5K gross
Tiger2002 linked markets · $202.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Falcons@ 54.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Saints@ 48.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Falcons@ 53.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Falcons@ 53.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Saints; negative values favor Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSaints · $0
6hFalcons · $13.7K
24hFalcons · $90.0K

Saints price VWAP

Volume-weighted Saints price. Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Saints probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h46.7¢▼ below by 46.7pp
VWAP 7d46.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Saints price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.9K
45¢
$288.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$386
25¢
$102
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$13

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFalcons$13.2K@ 55.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—2 days ago
BUYFalcons$115.1K@ 53.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—3 days ago
BUYSaints$51.7K@ 47.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—3 days ago
BUYFalcons$11.9K@ 53.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—3 days ago
BUYFalcons$33.0K@ 53.0¢
lalalalalalallalalalala0xe178…fe19
🐋—3 days ago
BUYFalcons$23.6K@ 52.0¢
justwins0xa2cc…0cbc
🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Tiger200Falcons$115.1K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
Kch-TempSaints$52.9K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills
lalalalalalallalalalalaFalcons$33.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
justwinsFalcons$23.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
quavooFalcons$19.9K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·15 fills
liquiditycrisisFalcons$11.9K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.