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Augsburg: Facundo Mena vs Kai Wehnelt

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $381.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $687.7KEvent: Augsburg: Facundo Mena vs Kai Wehnelt
62.5¢
Facundo Mena
37.5¢
Kai Wehnelt
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority40Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$306.8K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kai Wehnelt · $57.4K net·4 wallets(2🐋)·$258.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKai Wehnelt$80.0K@ 40¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Kai Wehnelt pressure: $50.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$50.5K
6h
−$50.5K
tracked
$306.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: Kai Wehnelt · $57.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 40

Since latest large flow: -2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Kai Wehnelt or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-02 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Mena and Kai Wehnelt in the Augsburg, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Facundo Mena' if Facundo Mena advances against Kai Wehnelt. This market will resolve to 'Kai Wehnelt' if Kai Wehnelt advances against Facundo Mena. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Facundo Mena@ 65.0¢21m ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Facundo Mena@ 66.0¢21m ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Kai Wehnelt24m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Kai Wehnelt@ 30.0¢30m ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp
Latest book event: Kai Wehnelt UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $11.3K → $4.1K · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Facundo Mena; negative values favor Kai Wehnelt. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKai Wehnelt · $50.5K
6hKai Wehnelt · $50.5K
24hKai Wehnelt · $50.5K

Facundo Mena price VWAP

Volume-weighted Facundo Mena price. Kai Wehnelt fills are converted to the complementary Facundo Mena probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h60.6¢▲ above by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d60.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Facundo Mena price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.8K
65¢
$3.0K
60¢
← now
$236.8K
55¢
$64.1K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKai Wehnelt$10.0K@ 38.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYFacundo Mena$10.3K@ 61.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYFacundo Mena$10.2K@ 59.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYKai Wehnelt$77.7K@ 38.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYFacundo Mena$12.9K@ 62.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYKai Wehnelt$80.0K@ 40.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—34 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Kai Wehnelt$157.7K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Facundo Mena$70.4K
BUY VWAP 57.7¢·10 fills
DjdjdjekekekFacundo Mena$27.2K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·4 fills
0x5f65…2036Kai Wehnelt$10.0K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.