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Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $577.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A
80.5¢
Natus Vincere payout
19.5¢
paiN payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $8.8K net·14 wallets(3🐋)·$149.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNatus Vincere$402.6K@ 100¢·kilian7kilian

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-28 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against paiN.

•This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win the match against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Natus Vincere and paiN in the BLAST Open Porto Group A, initially scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against paiN. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $89.4K gross
0x7A3f9C2D8b41E6a570F2c93B1d4E8A2 linked markets · $82.2K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $66.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY paiN7d ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Natus Vincere@ 86.0¢7d ago
15m INVALIDATED -20.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY paiN@ 15.0¢7d ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Natus Vincere@ 86.0¢7d ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor paiN. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hpaiN · $391.4K
6hpaiN · $352.1K
24hpaiN · $352.1K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. paiN fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.5¢
VWAP 24h93.7¢▼ below by 13.2pp
VWAP 7d93.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$430.9K
90¢
$1.5K
85¢
$3.8K
80¢
← now
$203.8K
75¢
$1.5K
70¢
$7.2K
65¢
$4.3K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNatus Vincere$402.6K@ 99.9¢
kilian7kilian0x14c7…9ccf
🐋—7 days ago
BUYpaiN$57.7K@ 16.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—7 days ago
BUYNatus Vincere$33.3K@ 83.0¢
kilian7kilian0x14c7…9ccf
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNatus Vincere$44.5K@ 81.0¢
0x7A3f9C2D8b41E6a570F2c93B1d4E8A0xc9a2…77d3
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNatus Vincere$10.1K@ 81.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563paiN$57.7K
BUY VWAP 16.0¢·1 fill
0x7A3f9C2D8b41E6a570F2c93B1d4E8ANatus Vincere$48.6K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·2 fills
kilian7kilianNatus Vincere$33.3K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·1 fill
SineNooneEINatus Vincere$10.1K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.