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Texans vs. Colts: O/U 42.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 27 minutesLiquidity: $49.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $147.8KEvent: Texans vs. Colts
37.0¢
Over
63.0¢
Under
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$68.5K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 39 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $6.3K net·2 wallets·$12.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$32.4K@ 52¢·liquiditycrisis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Under pressure: $3.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.9K
6h
−$47.8K
tracked
$68.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Over · $6.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 39 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 12.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Texans and Colts combine to score 43 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 43, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Texans and Colts combine to score 43 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 43, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz263 linked markets · $184.1K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $99.6K gross
HomeRunHazard5 linked markets · $81.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Under@ 52.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 52.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $3.9K
6hUnder · $47.8K
24hUnder · $49.3K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.0¢
VWAP 24h48.2¢▼ below by 11.2pp
VWAP 7d48.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$69.9K
40¢
$23
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$12.2K@ 52.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYUnder$32.4K@ 52.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

liquiditycrisisUnder$53.5K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.