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Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Sports→Settlement: Cincinnati RedsLiquidity: $211.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $194.7KEvent: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
0.0¢
Chicago Cubs payout
100.0¢
Cincinnati Reds payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChicago Cubs$19.4K@ 46¢·maz26

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Cincinnati Reds. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-28 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for August 28 at 2:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago Cubs@ 46.0¢22d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chicago Cubs; negative values favor Cincinnati Reds. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCincinnati Reds · $598
6hChicago Cubs · $47.7K
24hChicago Cubs · $58.8K

Chicago Cubs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chicago Cubs price. Cincinnati Reds fills are converted to the complementary Chicago Cubs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h45.0¢▼ below by 45.0pp
VWAP 7d45.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chicago Cubs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$4
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$27
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.4K
45¢
$64.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$5.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$21
10¢
$0
5¢
$4
0¢
← now
$598

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChicago Cubs$14.3K@ 47.8¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—22 days ago
BUYChicago Cubs$19.4K@ 46.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—22 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.