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US Open ATP: Fabian Marozsan vs Michael Zheng

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $95.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $144.9KEvent: US Open ATP: Fabian Marozsan vs Michael Zheng
38.5¢
Fabian Marozsan
61.5¢
Michael Zheng
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:30 trades$72.2K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMichael Zheng$20.0K@ 61¢·NiNo999

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Michael Zheng pressure: $10.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$10.9K
6h
+$8.0K
tracked
$72.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Fabian Marozsan · $4.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Michael Zheng or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Fabian Marozsan and Michael Zheng in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fabian Marozsan' if Fabian Marozsan advances against Michael Zheng. This market will resolve to 'Michael Zheng' if Michael Zheng advances against Fabian Marozsan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Michael Zheng@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Michael Zheng@ 60.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Fabian Marozsan; negative values favor Michael Zheng. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMichael Zheng · $10.9K
6hFabian Marozsan · $8.0K
24hMichael Zheng · $14.1K

Fabian Marozsan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Fabian Marozsan price. Michael Zheng fills are converted to the complementary Fabian Marozsan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h40.8¢▼ below by 2.3pp
VWAP 7d41.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Fabian Marozsan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$46.4K
35¢
← now
$31.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMichael Zheng$10.9K@ 61.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYMichael Zheng$20.0K@ 60.6¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NiNo999Michael Zheng$20.0K
BUY VWAP 60.6¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafMichael Zheng$10.9K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.