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US Open ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Cameron Norrie

● quote 29s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $200.3KEvent: US Open ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Cameron Norrie
34.0¢
Luca Van Assche
67.0¢
Cameron Norrie
100.0¢
Spread
anomaly21Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$84.5K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 38 min agoofficial metadata 35s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Luca Van Assche · $4.8K net·4 wallets·$23.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuca Van Assche$27.2K@ 33¢·Gourmet1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$516
6h
+$47.5K
tracked
$84.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: Luca Van Assche · $4.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
100.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -34.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 38 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 100.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Cameron Norrie in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Cameron Norrie. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Luca Van Assche. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
NiNo9992 linked markets · $40.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Luca Van Assche@ 34.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luca Van Assche; negative values favor Cameron Norrie. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCameron Norrie · $516
6hLuca Van Assche · $47.5K
24hLuca Van Assche · $45.2K

Luca Van Assche price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luca Van Assche price. Cameron Norrie fills are converted to the complementary Luca Van Assche probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.0¢
VWAP 24h33.6¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d33.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luca Van Assche price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$84.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLuca Van Assche$15.0K@ 34.9¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLuca Van Assche$27.2K@ 33.0¢
Gourmet10xc430…1ebf
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Gourmet1Luca Van Assche$34.2K
BUY VWAP 33.2¢·2 fills
NiNo999Luca Van Assche$15.0K
BUY VWAP 34.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.