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Set Handicap: Aguilar (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5)

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $19.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $21Event: US Open ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marton Fucsovics
67.0¢
Aguilar payout
33.0¢
Fucsovics. payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:3 trades$60.4K tracked67% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 89 min agoofficial metadata 59 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAguilar$35.4K@ 100¢·NiNo999

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aguilar" if Daniel Merida Aguilar wins by 2 or more sets than Marton Fucsovics, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Fucsovics."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniel Merida Aguilar can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Fucsovics."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Marton Fucsovics in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aguilar" if Daniel Merida Aguilar wins by 2 or more sets than Marton Fucsovics, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Fucsovics." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniel Merida Aguilar can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Fucsovics." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 59m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 59m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aguilar; negative values favor Fucsovics.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFucsovics. · $35.4K
6hFucsovics. · $10.4K
24hFucsovics. · $10.4K

Aguilar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aguilar price. Fucsovics. fills are converted to the complementary Aguilar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current67.0¢
VWAP 24h87.8¢▼ below by 20.7pp
VWAP 7d87.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aguilar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$35.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$25.0K
65¢
← now
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAguilar$35.4K@ 99.9¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAguilar$25.0K@ 70.5¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NiNo999Aguilar$25.0K
BUY VWAP 70.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.